Author: Azeem Majeed

I am Professor of Primary Care and Public Health, and Head of the Department of Primary Care & Public Health at Imperial College London. I am also involved in postgraduate education and training in both general practice and public health, and I am the Course Director of the Imperial College Master of Public Health (MPH) programme.

Questions and answers about Covid-19 vaccination in children

Why should children have the vaccine?

Children will usually have a mild or asymptomatic illness and are very unlikely to die if they contract Covid-19. But they can sometimes have a prolonged illness that can result in them being absent from school and which can also occasionally lead to serious long-term complications, such as Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome. Children can also transmit infection to others at higher risk of serious illness and death, such as their parents and grandparents.

 

Will all under-18s get the jab or specific groups/age groups?

Covid-19 vaccines will only be made available to children once we have good evidence of their safety and efficacy, and they have been licensed for use in children in the UK by the MHRA. It’s likely that any vaccination programme for children will start with those old enough to attend secondary school (above the age of 11 years), with vaccinations for younger children starting later.

 

Will it be compulsory?

Childhood vaccinations are not compulsory in the UK and are only given with parental consent.

 

Does it have to be an injection?

All the Covid-19 vaccinations in use in the UK, or which are close to being approved, are given by injection. It will be sometime, perhaps years, before we have vaccines that can be given by other routes, such as the nasal influenza vaccine that is used in children.

 

Will babies get it when they get their other jabs?

The timing of vaccination will depend on the results of research studies and the conditions put in place by the MHRA and guidance from the JCVI. Hence, we cannot yet say if younger children will be able to get the vaccine at the same time as their other vaccinations. But if this was possible, this would make vaccination more straightforward for children, parents and the NHS.

 

Will children get it at school or elsewhere?

This has not been decided yet but if vaccines are given to school-age children, this would be easier to carry out in schools as we currently do for the influenza vaccine for children. However, the government may also decide to use the NHS Covid-19 vaccine centres because some vaccines – such as the Pfizer mRNA vaccine – are not very easy to transport.

 

Are children getting vaccines in other countries? What has happened?

There are trials underway in some countries, such as the USA and UK, to test the safety and efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines in children. Israel has started to use vaccines in 16-17 year olds. Some children aged 16-17 years old in the UK with serious medical problems are also being vaccinated. However, the use of Covid-19 vaccines in children is not yet widespread, even for older children.

 

Does it mean children who aren’t vaccinated won’t be able to travel abroad?

It’s likely that children will be excluded from the need to provide proof of vaccination to travel overseas as there are not yet any vaccines that are approved for use for them. They may though require a recent negative test for Covid-19 before they can travel. It’s also possible that some countries will change their rules once Covid-19 vaccination becomes common in children.

 

If every person in Britain is vaccinated, will Covid be eradicated?

Only one disease, smallpox, has been entirely eradicated through vaccination. Some people will refuse to be vaccinated and in those who are vaccinated, the vaccines are not 100% effective in preventing infection, although they are very effective at preventing serious illness and death. Hence, we will still see cases of Covid-19 in the UK but if we have very high vaccine uptake in our population, we are unlikely to see large outbreaks unless a new variant of virus appears that is resistant to current vaccines.

Covid-19 vaccine adverse events: balancing monitoring with confidence in vaccines

As the global covid-19 vaccine rollout continues, uncertainties regarding the association between thromboembolic events and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine have dominated the news during March, leading 18 European countries to suspend its use whilst this association was investigated by the European Medicines Agency. This suspension of the vaccine will have serious implications for vaccine confidence in general and, in particular, for global vaccination programmes. It has already  heightened anxiety levels and affected vaccine uptake especially among vaccine-hesitant groups due to claims about side effects that are not supported by real world data or data from clinical trials.

Of all the covid-19 vaccines currently licensed or in development, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was considered the vaccination of choice by many countries because of its low cost and ease of storage compared to other vaccines. In the UK, more than 25 million people have had their first dose of covid-19 vaccine, comprising almost half of the adult population, with either the Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines.

The UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has monitored the safety of both vaccines through the Yellow Card scheme—a mechanism of reporting any possible vaccine side effects known as adverse drug reactions (ADRs). However, these reports do not mean there is causal link between the use of a vaccine and side effects. Data up to 7 March shows an estimated 11.7 million first doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca and 10.9 million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines were administered in the UK, resulting in 35,325 and 61,304 reports of possible side effects for Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines respectively, indicating a very low rate of reported side effects. The overwhelming majority of reports consist of injection-site reactions and symptoms secondary to the normal immune response such as “flu-like” illness, headaches, chills, and fatigue. All these are in line with the findings from clinical trials and from side effects reported with other routinely used vaccines.

Reports of severe allergic reactions to the Pfizer (223 reports) and AstraZeneca (234 reports) vaccines have been very rare. Available MHRA data do not suggest that venous thromboembolism is caused by the AstraZeneca vaccine. To date, there have been five reports of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis to MHRA, a rare type of blood clot in the cerebral veins, with no causal association with the vaccine. The temporal association between vaccination and death in mostly elderly patients with health conditions have also been reported in about 500 cases. However, there is no evidence to support that vaccination caused these deaths.

While the investigations of a potential link between AstraZeneca vaccine and thromboembolic events continue, the MHRA, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) have ruled out the causal link and stated that the population benefits far outweigh the risks, thereby reaffirming the safety of the vaccine that over 17 million people in the UK and EU have so far received. Around 30 cases of thromboembolic events have been reported amongst five million vaccinated people in EU; this rate remains lower than that observed in the general population.

Receiving a covid-19 vaccine is a landmark and memorable event for people and this coupled with a heightened sense of awareness following vaccination may lead to more cases being picked up. Moreover, there will be more presentations and over-diagnoses of thromboembolic events as expected following a highly publicised safety scare such as this.

While routine monitoring of vaccines to avoid potential harms is necessary, pausing or delaying vaccines must be evidence-based. The speculative commentary, generated by the media, will have serious and unintended consequences including an increase in vaccine hesitancy and even refusal; across Ireland, 30,000 vaccination appointments were cancelled during the week starting 15 March. Safety signals occur often with vaccines, with the majority representing false signals; although well-intentioned, the misapplied precautionary principle will undermine public trust, and heighten covid-19 risk through amplification of misinformation and disinformation campaigns of the “anti-vaxxer” movement. Vaccine-hesitant individuals are concerned about side effects and health-related long-term effects; these reports will make it very challenging to overcome these concerns at a time when covid-19 cases are still increasing across many European countries, requiring optimal uptake of vaccines to limit the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on populations.

The risks and trade-offs of suspending a life-saving vaccine must be carefully weighed especially during a pandemic; covid-19 itself is associated with blood clotting disorders. Historical precedents show that widely publicised safety scares have profound and long-lasting influence on vaccine confidence. [1] In 2017, the announcement that the dengue vaccine, Denvaxia, posed a risk to those who had not previously been exposed to the virus caused a drop in vaccine confidence in the Philippines and Indonesia. The safety controversy around the human papillomavirus vaccine in Japan caused one of the sharpest declines in vaccine uptake (from approximately 74% in those born in 1994-1998 to approximately 0.6% for those born in 2000). [2] The shock of this still reverberating today with Japan ranking among the lowest in vaccine confidence in a worldwide study. [1] A decline in vaccine uptake was also observed in Indonesia following warnings by the country’s faith leaders. [3]

Covid-19 vaccines are the single most effective way to prevent severe illness and death from the disease and accelerate the re-opening of society following non-pharmacological interventions such as lockdowns. Furthermore, vaccines are safe and have contributed to saving millions of lives. We call for monitoring of vaccine safety to occur out of the media limelight as sensationalist and exaggerated reporting will do irreparable damage to vaccine confidence. This includes suggestions by some media outlets that the actions taken by European countries were driven by political reasons. Sensationalist media reporting will lead to increased vaccine hesitancy, further loss of lives and derail efforts to end the current pandemic. Governments responses must be led by independent evidence through established public health and regulatory bodies such as the WHO, EMA and MHRA.

Mohammad S Razai, Academic Clinical Fellow in Primary Care, St George’s University of London. 

Tasnime Osama, Honorary Clinical Research Fellow, Department of Primary Care & Public Health, Imperial College London.

Azeem Majeed, Professor of Primary Care & Public Health, Department of Primary Care & Public Health, Imperial College London. 

This article was first published on BMJ Opinion

Questions and Answers about the AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine

Should I really be worried about blood clots?

The AstraZeneca vaccine has been given to many millions of people across the world (over 10 million in the UK). A few of these people have suffered from blood clots after receiving the vaccine but no causal relationship has been found and the number of people affected is not above what we would expect in the general population in people who did not receive the vaccine.

How safe is the vaccine?

The clinical trials in which the vaccine was tested showed it was very safe, with a very low level of serious side effects and this has been confirmed subsequently in the wider use of the vaccine in the UK and elsewhere. The benefits of the vaccine far outweigh any risks. The clinical events that led to concerns about the vaccine are very rare with only a small number of episodes among the many millions of people who have received the vaccine.

Why are so many countries suspending it?

When a possible side effect is linked to a drug or vaccine, some countries will temporarily suspend use of the product until this has been investigated further. This does not mean that the vaccine is unsafe and we would expect further review of the data to confirm its safety.

Can I reduce the risk of a blood clot by taking an aspirin?

It’s probably not advisable to use aspirin in this way because no link between blood clots and the vaccine has been confirmed and there is a small risk of suffering a serious stomach bleed after taking aspirin.

What are the other possible side effects of the vaccine?

The most common side effects of the vaccine are pain and tenderness at the injection site, headache, tiredness, generalised muscle pain, shivering and a fever. These side effects usually resolve within a few days.

Does your age affect the likelihood of side effects? (For instance, do younger people feel worse because their immune systems are better?)

Side effects can occur at all ages but tend to be less common in older people. This is thought to be because the immune system gradually weakens with age, which also leaves older people more susceptible to infection.

Won’t I still be protected if I refuse the vaccine, because so many other people have had it?

It’s important that as many people as possible receive the vaccine. If a large number of people are not vaccinated, we will continue to see outbreaks of Covid-19, with some people suffering a serious infection that could result in hospital admission or death. The vaccine is not 100% effective and children are not currently being immunised, so there will be many people in the population who can still become infected.

What’s the down side of not having the vaccine?

If you don’t receive the vaccine, you are at much higher risk of contracting a Covid-19 infection. These infections can be serious, leading to long-term complications and death in many people. You may also infect others, including elderly relatives who may be at high-risk of serious illness. Furthermore, the more people who receive the vaccine, the more likely we are to an end to the pandemic and the lockdown measures it has led to.

Assessing risk for healthcare workers during the Covid-19 pandemic

In March 2020, the World Health Organization classified Covid-19 as an international pandemic. Initial guidance from many organisations identified people who might be more vulnerable to covid-19, based on knowledge of those known to be most susceptible to adverse outcomes from the influenza virus. Health conditions divided individuals into those who are “extremely vulnerable,” for whom shielding is required, and those at “increased risk of severe illness.”

In a paper published in the British Medical Journal, we provided guidance for employers on assessing risk for healthcare workers during the Covid-19 pandemic. Risk management should involve training, measuring how well control measures are working, and learning from that experience. A risk management process should also involve consultation with staff. The pandemic has created an opportunity to improve safety in the workplace beyond covid-19, to consider cultural factors, and to ensure that all staff feel included and supported to raise concerns. How such processes have been conducted should also be evaluated to help improve risk management in the current pandemic and in any similar events in future.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n602

COVID-19 vaccine allocation: addressing the United Kingdom’s colour-blind strategy

Our new paper published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine discusses whether the government should take ethnicity into account when establishing priority groups for Covid-19 vaccination as one component of a strategy to target health inequalities.

COVID-19 has disproportionately affected Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups, resulting in higher rates of infection, hospitalisation and death. The COVID-19 pandemic has also exposed the pre-existing racial and socioeconomic inequalities in the UK. However, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has omitted ethnic minorities from the top priority groups which include older age, frontline health and social care workers, and care home staff and residents. The invisibility of these vulnerable groups from the priority list and the worsening healthcare inequities and inequalities are putting ethnic minorities at a significantly higher risk of COVID-19 illness and death.

The UK’s vaccine allocation strategies have the potential to further exacerbate the pre-existing, persistent but avoidable, racial inequalities that the COVID-19 pandemic and the wider governmental and societal response have harshly exposed and amplified. Dismissing the racial and socioeconomic disadvantages that ethnic groups face may result in a devastating impact lasting far beyond the end of the pandemic.

Controlling further outbreaks and, ultimately, ending the pandemic will require implementation of approaches that target ethnic minorities as well as ensuring that vaccine allocation strategies are effective, fair and justifiable for all.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177%2F01410768211001581

Media Coverage

https://www.nwemail.co.uk/news/national/19148392.ethnic-minorities-put-risk-colour-blind-vaccine-distribution-strategy/

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-03/s-uc030821.php

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ethnic-minorities-at-higher-risk-of-dying-with-coronavirus-because-of-colour-blind-vaccine-rollout-doctors-warn-12241078

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-doses-uk-ethnic-minorities-latest-b1814699.html

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/vaccine-strategy-puts-ethnic-minorities-20031089

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9342467/BAME-communities-risk-UKs-colour-blind-Covid-vaccine-strategy-experts-warn.html

https://www.three.fm/news/uk-news/covid-19-ethnic-minorities-at-higher-risk-of-dying-with-coronavirus-because-of-colour-blind-vaccine-rollout-doctors-warn/

https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/article/splash-74

Associations between attainment of incentivized primary care indicators and incident sight‐threatening diabetic retinopathy

Our new study published in the journal Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism shows a lower incidence of sight‐threatening diabetic retinopathy in people with type 2 diabetes who meet QOF targets for HBA1c, blood pressure and lipid control.

We aimed to examine the impact of attainment of primary care diabetes clinical indicators on progression to sight‐threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) among those with mild non‐proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR).

We carried out a historical cohort study of 18,978 adults (43.63% female) diagnosed with type 2 diabetes before 1 April 2010 and mild NPDR before 1 April 2011 was conducted. The data were obtained from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink during 2010‐2017, provided by 330 primary care practices in England. Exposures included attainment of the Quality and Outcomes Framework HbA1c (≤59 mmol/mol [≤7.5%]), blood pressure (≤140/80 mmHg) and cholesterol (≤5 mmol/L) indicators in the financial year 2010‐2011, as well as the number of National Diabetes Audit processes completed in 2010‐2011. The outcome was time to incident STDR. Nearest neighbour propensity score matching was undertaken, and univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were then fitted using the matched samples. Concordance statistics were calculated for each model.

A total of 1037 (5.5%) STDR diagnoses were observed over a mean follow‐up of 3.6 (SD 2.0) years. HbA1c, blood pressure and cholesterol indicator attainment were associated with lower rates of STDR (adjusted hazard ratios [95% CI] 0.64 [0.55‐0.74; p < .001], 0.83 [0.72‐0.94; p = .005] and 0.80 [0.66‐0.96; p = .015], respectively).

Our findings provide support for meeting appropriate indicators for the management of type 2 diabetes in primary care to bring a range of benefits, including improved health outcomes—such as a reduction in the risk of STDR—for people with type 2 diabetes.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/dom.14344

Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy among ethnic minority groups

In an editorial published in the British Medical Journal, we discuss the highly topical issue of Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy among ethnic minority groups. With mass Covid-19 vaccination efforts under way in many countries, including the UK, we need to understand and redress the disparities in its uptake. Data to 14 February 2021 show that over 90% of adults in Britain have received or would be likely to accept the covid-19 vaccine if offered. However, surveys have indicated much greater vaccine hesitancy among people from some ethnic minorities. In a UK survey in December 2020, vaccine hesitancy was highest among black, Bangladeshi, and Pakistani groups compared with people from a white ethnic background.

The legitimate concerns and information needs of ethnic minority communities must not be ignored, or worse still, labelled as “irrational” or “conspiracy theories.” We need to engage, listen with respect, communicate effectively, and offer practical support to those who have yet to make up their minds about the vaccine. Covid-19 vaccination is one of the most important public health programmes in the history of the NHS. Tackling vaccine hesitancy and ensuring that vaccination coverage is high enough to lead to herd immunity are essential for its success.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n513

Can the UK meet the government’s target of offering all adults a covid-19 vaccine by 31 July?

The Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set a target of offering a first dose of a covid-19 vaccine to all adults in the UK by the end of July 2021. What do we need to do to achieve this target? The first step is to ensure we have enough vaccines to offer first and second doses to all adults. There are around 53 million people aged 18 and over in the UK. If everyone took up the offer of a vaccination, we would require about 106 million vaccine doses, along with a small amount of vaccine for people under 18 who are classed as clinically extremely vulnerable.

Currently, we are using two vaccines in the UK: from AstraZeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech. A third vaccine from Moderna has been licensed in the UK but is not yet in use. Other vaccines—such as the candidate from Novavax—are in the late stages of development and approval; and may come into use in the UK by the early summer. The government will need to ensure that these companies can supply enough vaccines for use in the UK to meet its target date of 31 July.

How quickly do we need to vaccinate the UK population to meet the target? By 20 February, the UK had administered around 18 million doses of covid-19 vaccines (17.2 million first doses and 0.6 million second doses). This means that we need to administer around a maximum of another 88 million doses of vaccines if all adults in the UK accepted the offer of a vaccination and received two doses of vaccine.

In recent weeks, about 2.9 million doses of vaccine have been administered each week in the UK. As there are around 23 weeks until 31 July, we would be able to administer about a further 66 million vaccine doses by the target date, bringing the total doses administered to 84 million. This would be sufficient to provide all 53 million adults in the UK with at least one dose and also to provide 31 million of these people with two doses of vaccine.

Maintaining the same pace of vaccination after July would allow all adults in the UK to receive two doses of vaccine by mid to late September. In practice, we may need less than a total of 106 million doses of vaccine to immunise adults in the UK because not everyone will take up the offer of a covid-19 vaccination. Hence, the target of “offering” all adults in the UK a first dose vaccine by 31 July looks achievable if the supply and administration of vaccines can both be maintained at their current rates.

It’s also worth considering whether the UK should be more ambitious in its target. For example, if there was sufficient capacity in the NHS to offer 3.8 million doses of vaccine per week —an increase of 31% on the current vaccination rate—and vaccine supplies to allow this, all adults in the UK could receive two doses of vaccine by 31 July. In either scenario, 2.9 million doses weekly or 3.8 million doses weekly, the UK would have offered two doses of vaccine to all adults in the UK before the Autumn and thus would be better prepared for any seasonal increase in covid-19 infections than it was in 2020.

Maintaining an average of 2.9 million vaccinations per week for the next 23 weeks is ambitious, but it looks practical if vaccination sites can be guaranteed sufficient doses of vaccine.  Vaccination sites will also need to have deliveries timetabled well in advance so that clinics can be planned and patients booked in for appointments. It’s therefore critical that we avoid the problems seen in the earlier phase of the vaccination programme, when deliveries of vaccines to vaccination sites were often arriving late or being cancelled at short notice. This created logistical and planning difficulties for vaccination teams, as well as being very inconvenient for patients who had their appointments cancelled.

We also need to bear in mind that we have thus far been vaccinating groups of people, such as older or clinically vulnerable people and frontline healthcare professionals, where vaccine uptake has been very high. As we start to vaccinate younger, healthier groups of people, we may find vaccine uptake is lower than in older people because of greater levels of vaccine hesitancy. We need to ensure that we engage with vaccine hesitant groups—whether these are younger people or people from ethnic minority communities—to achieve a very high uptake of covid-19 vaccination. Broad population coverage is the vaccination programme’s best hope of success in helping to limit the spread of covid-19, allowing the UK to gradually relax its covid-19 control measures.

At this point, we also don’t yet know if booster vaccines will be required later in the year or in 2022 to deal with the effects of any decline in immunity following vaccination, or to provide protection against new variants of SARS-CoV-2 if older vaccines are less effective. If this is the case, we will need to put in place the infrastructure to deliver additional doses of vaccines to all adults in the UK, making the covid-19 vaccination programme like the influenza one but on a much bigger scale. It’s also possible that we will have vaccines licensed for use in children later this year, which will further increase the number of people who need to be vaccinated. The size of the covid-19 vaccination programme and its importance in allowing a return to a more normal way of life in the UK means that it must be meticulously planned and adequately funded for the indefinite future.

In conclusion, the government’s vaccination target looks achievable if it can guarantee sufficient supplies of vaccine; improve the planning of deliveries to vaccination sites; and provide vaccination teams with the required financial, administrative, and personnel support. This needs to be done at the same time as the NHS deals with all its other emergency and elective work, as well as with the large backlog of work caused by covid-19. As the majority of covid-19 vaccines have been delivered by primary care teams, particular emphasis must be placed on supporting NHS primary care during this period to ensure successful achievement of the vaccination target.

This article was first published in BMJ Opinion.

How can we address Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy and improve vaccine acceptance?

Vaccination offers the UK the best exit strategy from the covid-19 pandemic. [1] To accomplish this objective, achieving high population coverage of covid-19 vaccination is essential. However, despite the good safety and efficacy of covid-19 vaccines, public scepticism about the vaccines persists. [2] Vaccine opposition has existed for as long as vaccinations and, despite the public’s increasing scientific sophistication, has been growing across high-income countries, leading the WHO to list it in the top 10 global health threats in 2019. [3,4] In the UK, the covid-19 vaccination programme continues to gather pace, giving the UK a rare pandemic win; however, those prioritised for vaccination represent groups with low vaccine hesitancy rates. There have been many surveys assessing covid-19 vaccine hesitancy. Potentially affecting as many as one in three individuals in the UK, vaccine hesitancy is pervasive, especially amongst young adults and ethnic minorities, threatening to undermine the pandemic response. [5-7] To avoid disrupting the vaccination programme’s success, developing strategies that address vaccine scepticism is essential.

To dispel vaccine misinformation and myths, differentiating between the under-vaccinated, the anti-vaxxers, and the vaccine-hesitant is required. The vaccine-hesitant represent those who are uncertain about getting vaccinated, but remain open to it if they are convinced that vaccines are safe, effective, and necessary. In the vaccine-hesitant, it is essential to differentiate between vaccine-associated misinformation and mistrust.

A recent survey carried out by the Royal College of General Practitioners demonstrated that people of Black, Asian and mixed ethnic backgrounds are 53%, 36% and 67% less likely to have been vaccinated when compared to their white counterparts. [8] In the US, 32% of Black adults would definitely, or probably, get vaccinated if made available at no expense, compared to 52% of White adults. [9] While these communities are not ill-informed regarding their heightened risk of severe illness and death from covid-19, hesitancy in ethnic minorities remains disproportionately high. [9] Mistrust felt by this population is not irrational and must be addressed with respect. In addition to a history of systemic racism, which affects many Black people globally, the pandemic has allowed mistrust of covid-19 vaccines to thrive; as stated by the WHO, “racist remarks”, including French doctors suggesting Africa should be a testing ground for coronavirus, are not helpful and this “colonial mentality has to stop.” [10] In the UK, 90.6% of covid-19 vaccine recipients are white. [8] To avoid increasing the health inequalities that covid-19 has harshly exposed, engaging with vaccine-hesitant subgroups is required to increase knowledge levels, reduce perceived risks, and enable informed decision-making. Enhancing vaccine access and convenience will also improve support for vaccination. [11]

As real-time evidence continues to emerge, and mass vaccination campaigns approach vaccine-hesitant groups, culturally sensitive and tailored risk communication and messaging, co-involving faith and influential community leaders, are required to continuously inform, update, and reassure the public. [12] Covid-19 vaccines are unlikely to be made mandatory. Nudging individuals, through choice-offering strategies, incentivises vaccination, and aligns intention with actions. [13] Scientists proactively listening to concerns of subgroups and sharing risks and benefits in a manner that does not impose, but persuades, will improve voluntary cooperation. [13] As there are genuine concerns regarding their record-breaking timescales, alleviating uncertainties about vaccine safety and efficacy is essential. Communicating carefully that their development has followed the same legal requirements for pharmaceutical quality, safety, and efficacy as other medicines, and circulating accurate information including how advances in Ebola, whooping cough, rabies, human papillomavirus and hepatitis A and B vaccine technologies were leveraged for covid-19 vaccine development is important. [14,15]

The availability of online anti-vaccine narratives represents the leading cause of the rise in vaccine hesitancy; accessing these platforms for five to ten minutes increases the perception of risk of vaccines and reduces the perception of risk of refusing vaccines and intention to vaccinate. [16,17] While a number of the “next generation” covid-19 vaccines are based on sequence information, as opposed to “classical” virus- or protein-based vaccines, these vaccines are built on years of developments in infrastructure, knowledge and technical capacity. [18] Removing seeds of doubt requires filling information voids through carefully-designed health surveys, observational qualitative research and social media listening that avoid information overload and the unintentional generation of misinformation through, for example, multiple-choice questions that can lead respondents to misremember false responses as correct. [19,20] Additionally, addressing science-based uncertainty and reduced confidence in public health requires clear communication about the science and building trust through community outreach, respectively. [19]

Drugs, including vaccines in vials, remain useless unless people take them. The WHO’s 10-year Blue Nile Health Project, in Sudan, demonstrated limited success of mass drug administration and confirmed that a holistic and sustainable approach, inclusive of political commitment, community engagement and socioeconomic development, are all required for disease control. [21] The 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic also demonstrated that vaccine communication efforts were a big challenge and increasing public compliance and confidence in governments and medical facilities depend on coordinated efforts. [22-23]

Vaccines stand at the crossroad between an individual’s decision to accept an intervention and the public health benefits achieved when uptake is sufficiently high. At a time when unity is crucial, additional strategies are required to reach diverse communities, build civic awareness, develop a sense of collective purpose and, ultimately, arm the population with the information needed to defeat covid-19, the latest vaccine-preventable disease we face.

Tasnime Osama, Honorary Clinical Research Fellow, Department of Primary Care & Public Health, Imperial College London

Azeem Majeed, Professor of Primary Care & Public Health, Department of Primary Care & Public Health, Imperial College London

This article was first published by BMJ Opinion.

References

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  2. Markovitz G, Russo A. Survey Shows Rising Vaccine Hesitancy Threatening COVID-19 Recovery. World Economic Forum. 2020. https://www.weforum.org/press/2020/11/survey-shows-rising-vaccine-hesitancy-threatening-covid-19-recovery/
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When and how should we relax Covid-19 lockdown restrictions in the UK?

There is increasing discussion about how and when we should relax Covid-19 lockdown restrictions in the UK. My view is that we should be guided by data on case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths; and lift restrictions cautiously. In recent weeks, we have seen positive progress on case numbers with the daily number of people with positive Covid-10 tests falling from a peak over 50,000 per day earlier in the year to under 15,000 per day more recently. Hospitalisations and deaths are also falling but will lag behind the decrease in case numbers.

There are reasons to be positive about the future. Vaccination numbers are increasing daily with over 15M people now vaccinated against Covid-19, and administration of second vaccine doses due to start soon, as well as extension of vaccination to younger age groups. We are on target to offer a Covid-19 vaccine to all adults by later in 2021. However, we have seen lower vaccination rates in some groups, such as people from ethnic minorities, and it is essential to work with communities to overcome this vaccine hesitancy.

Another reason for optimism is that a large number of people also have some natural immunity to Covid-19 because of previous infection. Last year’s experience also shows that there is a seasonal effect on case numbers. Hence, we can be optimistic about seeing a decline in Covid-19 case numbers in the summer. We need though to avoid lifting restrictions too quickly and should do so in a gradual manner starting with opening up schools, and then opening up other sectors of the economy and society to avoid an increase in cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the Spring.

Finally, we need to be fully prepared for a potential increase in Covid-19 cases in the Autumn and Winter. This means ensuring that a high proportion of adults have had two doses of vaccine, and that we have a fully functional test and trace system in place by then. We are also likely to need continuing restrictions on overseas travel and travel to the UK; as well as planning for “booster” doses of vaccines to protect against newer and more infectious strains of SARS-CoV-2.